Rupee to drop back to 72 by end-May 2019 – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of 40 strategists, the Indian National Rupee (INR) is likely to stall its rebound and drop back to the 72 level against its American counterpart by end-May 2019 following the nation’s general elections.

Key Findings:

“While a sharp drop in oil prices should help the slowing economy and the Rupee, concerns will also persist over sluggish domestic demand which weighed more heavily on July-September growth than expected.

Despite a few recent advances, the Rupee is on track for its worst yearly performance in five years in 2018 and is forecast to weaken further.

The Nov. 28-Dec. 4 survey showed that the strategists forecast the Rupee to weaken over 2 percent by the end of May 2019, just after the general election, to 72.00 against the dollar.

But the currency is expected to have regained some of that lost ground a year from now, when it is seen at 71.62.

Nearly half of 51 analysts predicted in the last poll the rupee would breach its all-time low of 74.48 at some point in the coming 12 months, compared with only 13 of 49 respondents in this survey.”