27 Apr 2016
UK: Slower growth as expected - Lloyds
Analysts from Lloyds Bank noted that today’s GDP numbers from the Q1 from the United Kingdom showed a slower growth rate and going forward they see growth in the first half of the year, unlikely to differ from 2015.
Key Quotes:
“The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q1 saw growth of 0.4% q/q, in line with our and consensus expectations, and the joint-slowest quarterly growth rate since the UK’s post-crisis upswing began in earnest in 2013 Q1. Corresponding annual growth was 2.1% y/y, unchanged from the previous quarter.”
“Today’s data maintain the contrast between growth in 2013 and 2014 – averaging around 0.7% per quarter – and its slower pace since, averaging 0.5% per quarter over the course of 2015.”
“On today’s data, growth in the first half of 2016 seems unlikely to differ materially from the pace in 2015, with the backdrop of increased uncertainty likely to drag on economic activity. That slower growth momentum is likely to undermine the absorption of the economy’s spare capacity in the near term, and as such diminish the upward pressure on domestic costs.”
“Nevertheless, today’s data overall provide few surprises. And with the MPC indicating in its April meeting minutes that they are likely to react more cautiously to data news in light of the increased uncertainty, the bar to the
Key Quotes:
“The first estimate of UK GDP for 2016 Q1 saw growth of 0.4% q/q, in line with our and consensus expectations, and the joint-slowest quarterly growth rate since the UK’s post-crisis upswing began in earnest in 2013 Q1. Corresponding annual growth was 2.1% y/y, unchanged from the previous quarter.”
“Today’s data maintain the contrast between growth in 2013 and 2014 – averaging around 0.7% per quarter – and its slower pace since, averaging 0.5% per quarter over the course of 2015.”
“On today’s data, growth in the first half of 2016 seems unlikely to differ materially from the pace in 2015, with the backdrop of increased uncertainty likely to drag on economic activity. That slower growth momentum is likely to undermine the absorption of the economy’s spare capacity in the near term, and as such diminish the upward pressure on domestic costs.”
“Nevertheless, today’s data overall provide few surprises. And with the MPC indicating in its April meeting minutes that they are likely to react more cautiously to data news in light of the increased uncertainty, the bar to the