6 May 2015
US NFP forecast raised to 270k from 210k - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura Economists have raised their forecast for growth in Friday´s nonfarm payrolls to 270k from 210k.
Key Quotes
¨Our analysis suggests that the variable survey interval remains an issue for the month of April and could bias the forthcoming nonfarm payrolls number upwards by 40-70k.¨
¨As such, we have raised our forecast for growth in nonfarm payrolls to 270k from 210k to take into account this “April bias”.
¨However, this change in our forecast does not reflect a change in our assessment of the underlying momentum in the economy, only a reassessment of residual seasonal patterns in the establishment survey.¨
Key Quotes
¨Our analysis suggests that the variable survey interval remains an issue for the month of April and could bias the forthcoming nonfarm payrolls number upwards by 40-70k.¨
¨As such, we have raised our forecast for growth in nonfarm payrolls to 270k from 210k to take into account this “April bias”.
¨However, this change in our forecast does not reflect a change in our assessment of the underlying momentum in the economy, only a reassessment of residual seasonal patterns in the establishment survey.¨