6 May 2015
UK elections: The polls are a dead heat so far - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered a pre election piece explained that the polls have significantly narrowed the lead that Ed Miliband enjoyed in April, with polls on who will be the next PM showing a dead heat.
Key Quotes:
"Our composite probability of the next government backed out from betting odds suggests a 54% chance of a Conservative-led government, the highest odds so far."
"With 507 out of 650 seats seemingly completely safe, that leaves few seats to drive the outcome."
"We see 21 statistical dead heats and another 45 races within a couple percentage points in the polls as the ones to focus on."
"The earliest results are very safe Labour seats, so can only provide a rough gauge of support, with 1-2:30am providing an early read on true Labour prospects, and the first test for SNP and LibDems coming after 2am."
"The magic number for the Conservatives+LibDems+DUP is 12, meaning they must combine to win 12 seats they aren’t supposed to win in these tables if they are to secure a new majority in Parliament. Betting markets suggest momentum favours surprise Tory victories in some key contests."
Key Quotes:
"Our composite probability of the next government backed out from betting odds suggests a 54% chance of a Conservative-led government, the highest odds so far."
"With 507 out of 650 seats seemingly completely safe, that leaves few seats to drive the outcome."
"We see 21 statistical dead heats and another 45 races within a couple percentage points in the polls as the ones to focus on."
"The earliest results are very safe Labour seats, so can only provide a rough gauge of support, with 1-2:30am providing an early read on true Labour prospects, and the first test for SNP and LibDems coming after 2am."
"The magic number for the Conservatives+LibDems+DUP is 12, meaning they must combine to win 12 seats they aren’t supposed to win in these tables if they are to secure a new majority in Parliament. Betting markets suggest momentum favours surprise Tory victories in some key contests."