Recession fears have weigh on sentiment towards risk assets and US yields – Deutsche Bank

Here are the results of Deutsche Bank’s June 2022 global financial market sentiment survey conducted from June 27-29 covering 475 market professionals across the world. 

June 2022 market survey results

“Inflation expectations have stabilised across both sides of the Atlantic. Marginally lower in the US and marginally higher in Europe over the last month. The former comes as the +75 bps Fed hike closed the gap between our respondents' beliefs and expectations about Fed's resolve to bring down inflation – 72% now expect the central bank to try and reign in prices notwithstanding recession risks, up from 61% in May.”

“90% (vs 78% in May) expect a US recession by the end of 2023 or considerably earlier. For those opting for 2022 (20%), the timing was roughly evenly split between now, Q3 and Q4. We've tracked this over the last several months. Market views are reflecting this too, as 72% see the S&P 500 hitting 3,300 before 4,500.”

“While 56% expect the 10y JGB yield to stay the same by year-end, 43% believe they will have to break out higher. The spread between BTPs and Bunds is seen breaching +240 bps before +160 bps by a 70/30 split.”

“94% claim they have factored in some risk of a cut-off of Russian gas into Europe into their market view.”