EUR/USD will only recover once market can be certain that the ECB hikes in the autumn – Commerzbank

Has the euro bottomed now? In the view of analysts at Commerzbank, we cannot necessarily assume that.

Downside risks dominate 

“First of all, the risk of an energy crisis putting pressure on the euro zone economy has not yet been overcome. Secondly, the market might react to the ECB’s hesitant approach towards fighting inflation and put pressure on the euro accordingly.”

“At some point in time, the market can presumably be certain that the ECB is likely to hike its key rate in the autumn. However, the euro will only be able to recover once there is increasing certainty. At the moment the market does not have this certainty so downside risks dominate in the euro.”