USD/CAD: Giving the downside the benefit of the doubt – Credit Suisse

USD/CAD has closed just above the important 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2623. However, economists at Credit Suisse give the downside the benefit of the doubt for now. 

Bearish bias whilst below 1.2667

“USD/CAD has broken above its key 200-DMA, lessening conviction in our bearish outlook, but for now, we continue to give the downside the benefit of the doubt. Next key resistance is seen at 1.2653/67, which includes the 50% retracement of the 2021 fall and the 55-DMA.” 

“We stay biased directly lower whilst below 1.2653/67, with a break below 1.2565 needed to reassert the downtrend for a move back to 1.2537/35 initially and then to 1.2481/79. Thereafter, a break below the YTD low at 1.2427/00 would trigger a move to our core objective at 1.2287, which is the October 2021 low.” 

“A break above the 55-DMA at 1.2667 would reassert the rangebound environment and likely trigger further short-term strength, with next resistance at 1.2712.”