EUR/USD: Risks for the euro pointing downwards – Commerzbank

We will have to wait and see what exactly the US and the EU will decide today and tomorrow in terms of further measures and sanctions against Russia. The US is expected to announce additional sanctions but the EU is not looking to introduce big new sanctions. All in all, the euro is set to remain under pressire, economists at Commerzbank reprot.

Times remain difficult for the euro

“The fact that the US wants to reach an agreement with the EU that will reduce the latter's dependence on gas supplies from Russia possibly indicates that the pressure on the EU to sanction energy supplies from Russia is increasing, which several EU states are still resisting. They would probably prefer only a sharpening of existing sanctions.”

“Russia can drive up the price of energy and hurt the EU economy badly, even if it continues to supply gas. I would therefore think that with each new sanction, the risk of an energy price shock increases, which would hit the EU economy and thus the euro harder. Hence, the risks remain on the downside for the euro for now.”