28 Jul 2014
Specs keeps selling the Euro - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - David Fritz and Jens Nordvig, FX Strategists at Nomura, look at the latest changes in futures positioning, noting that specs kept selling the Euro for the week ended July 22.
Key Quotes
"For the week ended July 22, non-commercial accounts continued to sell EUR. On the week ended Tuesday, speculators sold $4.3bn and we estimate they sold an additional $2.0bn since. The EUR was mainly sold against USD, which gained $3.9bn of longs into Tuesday and a further $2.5bn by Friday‟s close."
"Speculative accounts sold $4.3bn of EUR by Tuesday, increasing total net shorts to -$15.0bn. This is the most net short EUR has been since November 2012. By Friday we estimate that positioning in EUR had gotten even more net short, to -$16.9bn. Positioning in EUR was only more net short in May 2010 and for a few months starting in November 2011."
"JPY shorts were cut on the week ended Tuesday by $1.1bn, bringing spec positioning in JPY to -$6.6bn. This equals the least net short JPY has been since November 2012. This could reflect sentiment that markets are accepting less chance of further easing by the BOJ and losing conviction in yen weakness as USDJPY has been trading sideways for months."
"CAD positioning continues to get more net long, even as the Canadian dollar depreciates. Positioning in CAD stood at $1.9bn by Tuesday and remained there through Friday. This is again the most net long CAD has been since February 2013."
Key Quotes
"For the week ended July 22, non-commercial accounts continued to sell EUR. On the week ended Tuesday, speculators sold $4.3bn and we estimate they sold an additional $2.0bn since. The EUR was mainly sold against USD, which gained $3.9bn of longs into Tuesday and a further $2.5bn by Friday‟s close."
"Speculative accounts sold $4.3bn of EUR by Tuesday, increasing total net shorts to -$15.0bn. This is the most net short EUR has been since November 2012. By Friday we estimate that positioning in EUR had gotten even more net short, to -$16.9bn. Positioning in EUR was only more net short in May 2010 and for a few months starting in November 2011."
"JPY shorts were cut on the week ended Tuesday by $1.1bn, bringing spec positioning in JPY to -$6.6bn. This equals the least net short JPY has been since November 2012. This could reflect sentiment that markets are accepting less chance of further easing by the BOJ and losing conviction in yen weakness as USDJPY has been trading sideways for months."
"CAD positioning continues to get more net long, even as the Canadian dollar depreciates. Positioning in CAD stood at $1.9bn by Tuesday and remained there through Friday. This is again the most net long CAD has been since February 2013."