24 Jul 2014
Resumption of RBNZ tightening cycle in Dec - BNZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Following today's RBNZ rate hike to 3.5%, Stephen Toplis, Strategist at BNZ, now expects no change in rates in either September or October and a resumption of the tightening cycle in December.
Key Quotes
"The RBNZ Governor could not have been more aggressive in his comments on the currency if he had tried: “With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall”."
"Our forecast rate track remains unchanged as a consequence of today’s statement. We forecast no change in rates in either September or October and a resumption of the tightening cycle in December."
"We have the cash rate at 4.75% at the end of 2015 and an eventual peak of 5.00%. As is the case with the RBNZ, we stress that these forecasts are highly dependent on our activity and, especially, our exchange rate forecasts. For the record we have the NZD TWI at 78.4 by end 2014 and 75.2 by end 2015. Currently it sits at 80.3."
Key Quotes
"The RBNZ Governor could not have been more aggressive in his comments on the currency if he had tried: “With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall”."
"Our forecast rate track remains unchanged as a consequence of today’s statement. We forecast no change in rates in either September or October and a resumption of the tightening cycle in December."
"We have the cash rate at 4.75% at the end of 2015 and an eventual peak of 5.00%. As is the case with the RBNZ, we stress that these forecasts are highly dependent on our activity and, especially, our exchange rate forecasts. For the record we have the NZD TWI at 78.4 by end 2014 and 75.2 by end 2015. Currently it sits at 80.3."