USD/JPY: The break of 104.00 marks an important regime shift lower – Credit Suisse

USD/JPY has seen a further sharp collapse for a conclusive break of key price support at 104.02/00 and a weekly close below here should reinforce the view that the pair has seen a significant regime shift, exposing support at 101.57/18 – the March spike low and potential trend support, per Credit Suisse.

Key quotes

“USD/JPY has seen a further sharp collapse following its bearish ‘outside day’ for a conclusive break of key price support at 104.02/00. Whilst we would like to see a weekly close below here to confirm, we think this is highly likely to be seen to reinforce the view we have seen a significant break to the downside and regime shift.” 

“Weakness has already extended to test 103.43 – the 78.6% retracement of the rally from March – but whilst a rebound from here should still be allowed for our broader outlook remains for a clear break for a test of what we see as more important support at 101.57/18 – the March spike low and potential trend support.”

“Resistance moves to 103.77/84 initially, then 104.00/02, with the broader risk seen lower whilst below 104.62.”