Canada: Labor market report to show the lowest gain in five months – RBC

Next week, the Canadian employment report is due. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect an increase in payrolls of 200K that would be the lowest in five months. They point out the recovery of the labor market continues, albeit at a slower pace. 

Key Quotes: 

“We expect next week’s Canadian labour report to show a 200k increase in employment – the smallest gain in 5 months. Still, the increase will bring the cumulative job recovery to 2.1 million, or 70% of the 3 million jobs lost in March and April. The unemployment rate is expected to dial down to 9.4%, in part reflecting a sizeable number of unemployed students returning to school in September.”

“The easing in the pace of labour market recovery echoes the slowing pace of economic activity with Statistics Canada estimating GDP growth continued to slow in August. The hours worked data in the monthly labour market report will provide an early read on how much the slowing momentum spilled into September. The split between part-time and full-time employment as well as temporary vs. permanent layoffs will offer meaningful clues on the underlying health of the recovery. To be sure, the labour market is still very weak.”