US dollar: Little reason to turn bearish – HSBC

Analysts at HSBC bank offer their outlook on the US dollar, noting that there is little reason to be bearish on the US dollar, especially against the EUR, GBP and CAD.

Key quotes

“Although the momentum in the USD has moved against our expectations for certain pairs - most notably the EUR and GBP - we do not believe this will persist.

When we look at what has fundamentally changed in the last month and would make us reconsider our outlook, we find little reason to turn bearish on the USD. We do not see much that has fundamentally changed outside the price action and a diminishing of near-term European political risk premium.

We are still expecting a relatively slow global economic recovery, with downside risks, and, in such a world, we continue to believe currencies with fiscal flexibility are best placed to recover faster than those with more stretched debt dynamics.

We still see the AUD and NZD holding on to recent gains and even strengthening further in the next year. But we remain positive on the USD's outlook against the EUR, GBP and CAD.”