Thailand is expected to expand less than expected in 2019 – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Barnabas Gan reviewed the recent GDP figures in Thailand.

Key Quotes

“Thailand’s economy expanded at 2.4% y/y in 3Q19, up from 2.3% in 2Q19 but below what markets were expecting. The gain has been led by an acceleration in government consumption and gross fixed capital formation, as well as a widening trade surplus”.

“Agriculture production led the advance with a 1.5% y/y growth, while the services cluster has expanded further by 3.8% in 3Q19. However, the sustained contraction in the manufacturing space caused the overall industrial cluster to contract 0.3% y/y, the first negative print since 1Q14”.

“We downgrade our full-year growth outlook to 2.6% (from a previous 2.8% expectation), in line with the growth downgrade penciled by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) to the above-mentioned pace. While we find comfort in the improving trade balance, the contraction in the manufacturing and trade clusters seen to-date remain to be key drags to overall growth into the quarters ahead”.