Australia: Housing market recovery to lift retail? – ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, for the Australian economy, the impact of monetary policy on housing is clear, but its effect on consumption has been limited, so far.

Key Quotes

“The housing market recovery will lift retail. Rising housing prices and turnover tend to support non-food retail sales, and we are already seeing the first signs of that. But the lag between housing strength and a full recovery in retail can be long, and challenges, such as high debt and economic uncertainty, may soften the effect.”

“Retail sales volumes fell in the year to September for the first time since 1991. Non-food sales, in particular household goods, have been struggling in the last couple of years, as housing prices fell.”

“Improvements in the housing market are boosting non-food retail, which grew 0.5% q/q in September, the best result since mid-2018.”

“Households however are using the recent tax and rate cuts to pay down debt, which may delay improvements in household spending.”