UK: Mixed labour market data – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s September labour market data was mixed today, with the unemployment rate slipping back down to 3.8% (mkt 3.9%), but wage growth a bit weaker at 3.6% y/y (mkt 3.8%).

Key Quotes

“There are still signs of weakness ahead though, with vacancies posting their biggest y/y fall in a decade. The labour market data is very slow moving since it's a 3m MA, so today's figures were for the July-Sept period. (Whereas we already have US employment data for October.)”

“So while other more timely survey data suggest that the unemployment rate is likely to start trending a bit higher over the next several months, it will take a while for that trend to be clear in the official labour market report.”