Asia week ahead: Going for accommodation – ING

At the start of the Asian week, ING releases a report portraying key events for Asian traders. During the present week, as per the latest release, trade, inflation and policy rates dominate the calendar in Asia. Analysts at ING anticipate a bit of a pick-up in trade figures with expectations of a rate cut from Bank of Thailand and sluggish inflation numbers from the Philippines.

Key quotes

“Trade data from Malaysia, the Philippines, China, and Taiwan are due, and each could tell a different story with respect to the trade war, the global tech slump, and domestic demand for imports.”

“Philippines' inflation is expected to come in at 0.9% year-on-year in October, well below the central bank's 2-4% target thanks to low food prices. This should set up the central bank for a further rate cut, but possibly not until 1Q20.”

“Meanwhile, we are hoping for a bit more action from one of Asia’s other central banks. One of the most reluctant to ease has been the Bank of Thailand (BoT), but given the currency's resilience in the face of measures aimed at weakening the currency, and the domestic economy’s continued stagnation, we are looking for a 25 basis point easing of policy rates to 1.25% at the coming meeting.”

“After easing a fourth consecutive time in October, Bank Indonesia will likely scrutinize forthcoming 3Q19 GDP data and current account balances to assess whether there is either the need for and room for further easing.”

“A sub-5.0% GDP print could provide the catalyst for a further 25 basis points of easing this year, give recent pro-growth comments from Governor Warjiyo. Their next meeting is on 21 November.”