NZD/USD: Stuck in a range – Westpac

According to Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac, NZD/USD has been stuck in a 0.6250-0.6350 range during the past two weeks, but over that period the USD has weakened but NZD/USD has struggled to rally.

Key Quotes

“We suspect the looming RBNZ decision on 13 Nov is keeping the bulls at bay. RBNZ Dep. Gov. Bascand yesterday gave the strongest hint yet that it will probably cut then. At 100% priced, with a follow-up cut 80% priced, it does seem aggressive.”

“Recent housing, commodity price, and inflation data (non-tradables has accelerated over the past year – see across) have been firmer than expected, suggesting the RBNZ has justification in remaining on hold after November.”

“Multi-month, though, we remain bearish, targeting 0.6130 which was the 2015 low. We expect the NZD/USD to be weighed down by a stronger USD which should continue to benefit from trade wars and global risks.”