When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US monthly jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 158K new jobs in August, slightly lower than the previous month's reading of 164K.
 
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% during the reported month but the key focus will remain on wage growth figures, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are foreseen to post strong growth of 0.3% on a monthly basis, matching the previous reading, while the yearly rate is anticipated to tick lower to 3.1% from 3.2% reported in July.
 
As Joseph Trevisani - Senior Analyst FXStreet explains – “The stresses on the US and global economies are, despite their late-cycle position, largely event-driven. Whether the economy and labor market can weather another year or two of the current unease and indecision on trade is open to many questions but for the moment the US labor market is taking its reference from the domestic economy and not the globe.  The payroll risk for August remains, as it was in, July on the upside.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -0.39 or +0.50 is likely to be in the range of 33-40 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 80-pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair – “Some resistance awaits at 1.1050, which was a swing low in late August. It is followed by 1.1185, which was a high point on Thursday. Further up, 1.1115 capped EUR/USD in mid-August and 1.1130 provided temporary support later last month.”
 
“Support awaits at 1.1020 which was a low point earlier this week. The round number of 1.1000 follows. Next, we find 1.0960, which was a swing low last Friday, and 1.0926 – the 2019 trough,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •  US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Against all odds

   •  US NFP Preview: 8 Major Banks expectations from August payrolls report

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Looking powerful ahead of Powell and the Non-Farm Payrolls

About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.