US: NFP to trend modestly lower to 145k in August – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US payrolls to trend modestly lower to 145k in August (mkt 160k), following the 164k print in the previous month.

Key Quotes

“The strong increase in services-sector employment in the August ADP report raises the odds of an upside surprise. We also note that the start of temporary census hiring for canvassing purposes could further boost the headline number.”

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, while we expect wages to rise 0.2% m/m, dragging the annual print lower to 3.0% in August.”

“Separately, we don't anticipate Fed Chair Powell to deviate much from the Jackson Hole script on his Friday discussion about the economy at 12:30 ET. Powell is likely to repeat that the economy remains in a good place, and that the Fed stands prepared to act as appropriate to sustain the expansion under a context where global uncertainties have increased.”