Markets: What is most important in the week ahead? – Nordea Markets

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, we are headed for a big PMI week for the global markets.

Key Quotes

“The uncertainty ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing (Monday) figure next week is larger than usual, as the divergence between PMI details and headline PMI index in eg the Philly Fed regional survey is almost record high.”

“Our market-based ISM model suggests a “fair value” of just above 50, which is why we believe that further spread widening and multiple contractions are probably needed for ISM to head below 50. Although, this is not out of the question given our view on earnings presented earlier. Friday’s US job report is another interesting key figure and most importantly, we expect wage growth to rebound higher (above consensus at 3.2%).”

“The ECB meeting is the most interesting central bank meeting in a while (Thursday), as details for TLTRO-3 will likely be revealed.”

“It is a relatively quiet week in Scandinavia outside of the PMIs on Monday, while the Danes will head to the ballot box on Wednesday for the general election. However, we consider the tail risks surrounding the Danish election to be minimal.”