US: Core PCE prices likely to increase by 0.2% in April - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a solid 0.2% m/m increase in the US core PCE prices for April, which should translate into a steady 1.6% y/y inflation rate with rounding.

Key Quotes

“Risks are skewed to a softer print, in our view. We look for muted consumer spending after an outsized 0.9% m/m jump in March. The choppiness in the spending data should fade as tight financial conditions and delayed tax refunds recede from view.”

“Chicago PMI and the final print of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will round out the calendar; the market looks for Chicago PMI to rebound to 54.0 after falling by 5 points in April, while consumer confidence is expected to edge lower to 101.5 in May from 102.4 in the preliminary release.”