When is the US monthly jobs report (NFP) and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US jobs report overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 12:30GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 185K new jobs during the month of April, lower than the previous month's headline print of 196K.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8% during the reported month but the key focus will be on wage growth data, which have gained more traction in the recent past. Average hourly earnings are foreseen to rise by 0.3% m/m, while the yearly rate is anticipated to tick higher to 3.4% rate.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction to the headline NFP print, in case of a relative deviation of -1.23 or +0.98, is likely to be in the range of 54-52 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 105-90 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could the data affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to trade the major: “Initial support awaits at 1.1140 which was a temporary support line in mid-April. The 2019 trough of 1.1110 is a critical support line. The next line, 1.1025, dates back to June 2017, nearly two years ago.”

“Looking up, 1.1220 capped a recovery attempt recently. The high of 1.1265 seen on Wednesday is a significant resistance line. It is followed by 1.1325 that was a stubborn cap in mid-April,” he added further.

Key Notes

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About the US monthly jobs report

The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market asses them all.