AUD/USD seen recovering on a weak greenback - Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank offer a brief outlook on the Australian dollar over the coming year.

Key Quotes:

“China remains the greatest risk, 

The recovery of the Australian economy and thus of the AUD will depend largely on the extent to which concerns about the Chinese economy prove to be true … we are optimistic that there will not be a noticeable slump in Chinese economic growth.

We forecast a recovery of the Australian currency, especially against the US dollar, which is however primarily attributable to a weak greenback rather than a strong AUD.

Fed unlikely to raise its key interest rate any further.

ECB will also continue to pursue an expansionary monetary policy, we expect a sideways movement in EUR-AUD for the time being.

As soon as the prospect of an interest rate hike in Australia next year emerges, the AUD should also gain against the EUR.”