US: Recession looming? – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that the US treasury yield curve is getting flatter and has already inverted at the 2-5 segment and suggests that their recession model now indicates a 47% probability of a recession by April 2020.

Key Quotes

“Since the FOMC thinks that inverting the yield curve does not cause a recession because ‘this time is different’, we expect the 2-10 segment of the yield curve to invert in 2019Q2, which would signal a recession in 2020Q4.”