Global growth will decelerate in 2019 – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, global growth will decelerate in 2019, but still generally remain above trend.

Key Quotes

“The US may be one prominent exception, as the combination a fading fiscal sugar rush and rising tariff impacts should push US GDP growth below 2% by end-2019.”

“With underlying inflation edging close enough to their targets, other central banks, most notably the ECB, will start down their own gradual paths toward normalization. Meanwhile the Fed will conclude its hiking cycle and balance sheet runoff during 2019, narrowing some of the divergence among central banks.”

“The trade stand-off between the US and China is set to continue throughout next year, with additional tariffs imposed by early 2019. While this situation is unlikely to fundamentally undermine the outlook, it will be a stagflationary shock and represents additional downside risk.”