US: Focus on CPI and retail sales this week - NBF

Analysts at National Bank Financial point out that in the U.S., the consumer price index could have risen 0.3% m/m in October, boosted by a larger-than-usual increase in gasoline prices.

Key Quotes

“As a result, the year-on-year rate could climb two ticks to 2.5%. The core inflation rate, meanwhile, could have increased 0.2%, allowing the annual rate to remain unchanged at 2.2%.”

“In other news, industrial production may have expanded for a fifth consecutive month in October, echoing an expansion of output in the manufacturing sector. A positive contribution is also expected from mining based on the increase in oil rigs operating in the country during the month.”

“Still in October, both headline and ex-auto retail sales likely expanded at a healthy clip, in line with rising auto sales and higher gasoline prices in the month. The first clues on the state of the manufacturing sector in November will also be available with the publication of the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys. We’ll also keep an eye on the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.”