UK: PMI, GDP and Brexit - Danske Bank

According to analysts from Danske Bank, in the UK, we have a busy calendar ahead of us next week that includes Q3 GDP data. 

Key Quotes: 

“On Monday, the PMI service index for October is due, which will give us more insight into growth momentum in the beginning of Q4. While the Lloyds Business Barometer suggests a sharp fall is on the cards, the DG ECFIN service confidence indicator says it probably remained unchanged. The latter is usally a better indicator but we think the service index may have declined slightly to 53.3, given the manufacturing index fell as well.”

“On Friday, the first full estimate of Q3 GDP growth is due out. Given strong base effects, quarterly GDP growth could come out as high as 0.7% q/q, although our point estimate is 0.6%. This will probably not last, because the base effect is temporary and as survey indicators have deteroriated.”

“In terms of Brexit, nothing is scheduled for next week, but as the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has indicated, we probably need more progress in the negotiations very soon if there is to be an extraordinary EU summit on Brexit in mid-November.”