US: Focus on personal income and spending data – Nomura

The analysis team at Nomura expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in US personal income in September.

Key Quotes

“With steady readings of the household saving rate, continued gains in income should remain supportive for spending.”

“In addition, tax cuts will likely continue to boost personal spending growth. Against this backdrop, we expect a steady 0.2% increase in personal spending, consistent with healthy momentum in personal consumption growth in Q3.”

“Based on September retail sales data, consumer spending on autos likely rose solidly while spending on gasoline declined. In addition, a sharp decline in receipts at drinking and dining venues suggests a possible slowdown in service spending.”

“The impact of Hurricane Florence on personal spending in September does not appear to be large as disruptions to sales activity were likely offset by a pickup in replacement demand for household goods. Similarly, personal spending in October will likely be affected by offsetting impact of Hurricane Michael.”