UK: Small upside risks to September retail sales - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities see small upside risks to UK’s September retail sales, with a gain of 0.2% m/m (mkt: -0.3%).

Key Quotes

“This would leave retail sales in expansion territory for three consecutive months, something that has not happened since mid-2017, but much of this growth is coming on the back of expanding credit, and is likely unsustainable.”

“We continue to expect a softening in activity through H2, with growth constrained until Brexit clarity emerges at the end of this year and into early 2019. EU leaders conclude their summit today, with a high chance we see Brexit headlines.”