US: Housing starts to fall 8.1% in September - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US housing starts to fall 8.1% m-o-m to 1179k saar in September.

Key Quotes

“Single-family housing starts rose firmly by 1.9% m-o-m in August, but much of that growth was driven by a 14.2% m-o-m gain in the West. This sharp jump does not appear sustainable and could possibly revert.”

“Further, the recent hurricanes in the Southeast coastline may have disrupted housing starts in the month. Severe storms tend to suppress concurrent construction activity but lead to a burst of activity during recovery.”

“Looking through idiosyncratic volatility, we do not see signs of material acceleration in single-family housing starts given the significant supply-related challenges. In addition, multifamily housing starts jumped 29.3% m-o-m in August. A potential reversion will likely lower total housing starts. On housing permits, we expect a 1.9% m-o-m rebound to 1273k saar.”