US CPI preview: all eyes on this one - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for the key US event in US CPI.

Key quotes:

"CPI: We forecast a 0.2% (0.244%) m-o-m increase in the core CPI for September following a 0.082% advance in August (Consensus: 0.2%). On a 12-month basis, our forecast would be equivalent to 2.304% in September (Consensus: 2.3%), up slightly from the 2.190% pace in August."

"The relative softness in core CPI inflation in August was mostly concentrated in certain volatile core goods prices. Thus, we think core CPI inflation will likely return to its underlying trend that seems consistent with core PCE inflation running slightly above or close to 2% y-o-y."

"Among the noncore components, we expect a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in food prices. Food-at-home price growth likely slowed based on incoming data on agricultural products, lowering aggregate CPI food prices. Energy prices, primarily led by volatile gasoline prices, did not move substantially in September and we expect a slight decline in CPI energy prices."

"Altogether, we expect a 0.2% (0.192%) m-o-m increase in headline CPI inflation (Consensus: 0.2%). Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.785 (Consensus: 252.702). "