Poland: Negative surprises in the labour market - ING

Jakub Rybacki, Economist at ING, notes that both corporate wages and employment of Poland came in below market expectations in August.

Key Quotes

“Corporate wages slowed down from 7.2% to 6.8% year on year and came in below the market consensus of 7.0%YoY. The detailed structure should be available in two weeks, and we expect to see a cross-sectoral divergence.”

“We see limited room for further increase in wages. We forecast the peak of dynamics in 4Q18 – corporate wages should hover around 8-8.5%YoY.”

“The rise in the minimum wage to 7.1% in 2019 should maintain such dynamics in 1Q19, but after that, we expect moderation afterwards and a return towards 7%YoY in 2H19.”

“Enterprise employment also came in slightly below expectations – the headline dynamics decreased by 0.1pp to 3.4%YoY, as data for August came below the seasonal trend.”

“In our opinion, this phenomenon emphasises labour shortage and the slowdown should continue in the next few months ahead.”