BoE: Surveys point to growing uncertainty about economic outlook

Below are some of the key highlights from the BoE Agents' summary of business conditions for Q3 2018 and the latest monetary policy statement.

Agent's Summary:

   •  Consumer spending growth ticked up modestly, boosted by warm weather.
   •  Rising uncertainty from Brexit leaves investment intentions soft.
   •  Export and domestic manufacturing output growth slowed but remain above average.
   •  Recruitment difficulties stay elevated, average pay settlements a little higher than a year ago.

Monetary policy statement:

   •  MPC notes a rise in the level of concern regarding Brexit negotiations, as flagged by financial markets.
   •  PMI surveys/ Bank's Agent's point to growing uncertainty about the economic outlook.
   •  Pay measures a little stronger than bank foresaw in the August report, consistent with a further rise in earnings.
   •  MPC's August projection appears to be broadly on track.
   •  The committee sees potential negativity from trade talk tensions between US and China.
   •  Impact of pass-through from August hike similar to the response seen after November 2017 rate rise.
   •  Rotation in demand, away from household consumption towards net trade/business investment less marked than previously assumed.
   •  Bank rate likely to rise at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.