ECB Preview: Time to deploy the taper - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, next week's ECB meeting should be a relatively uneventful one, with the widely-expected confirmation of an 18Q4 taper the only real development.

Key Quotes

“New staff projections will be released alongside the decision, and we expect no revision to the inflation forecast (keeping the Governing Council's policy guidance on track), and only a small negative marking-to-market of the GDP forecast.”

“FX: For FX markets, our base case implies only a modest reaction for the EUR as other drivers are likely to provide greater directional influence. Overall, our base case suggests some modest downside pressure on the EUR, as FX markets may de-couple from rates to some extent. Overall, however, our ambition to see a significant FX adjustment remains muted for this meeting.”