US: Could households trigger a cyclical downturn? - Natixis

US companies are optimistic, thanks in particular to the tax reform which is very positive for them and it is therefore difficult to predict a cyclical downturn triggered by companies in the United States, according to Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis.

Key Quotes

“Could this downturn be caused by households? That is possible:

• The rise in the oil price is weakening real wages;
• US household defaults on several types of loans are on the rise;
• Household-related cyclical indicators (consumer confidence, retail sales, and building permits) for the time being show only a slight faltering of consumption in early 2018.”