25 Mar 2014
What to expect the day ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, summarizes what to expect on the day ahead.
Key Quotes
"RBA Deputy Governor Lowe speaks on “Opportunities and Challenges for Market-based Financing” from 3:45pm Syd/12:45pm Sing/HK, which doesn’t sound as though it will have any impact on AUD. Asian data releases today are relevant only to local markets (trade data in Philippines and HK)."
"Europe’s calendar highlight is the Mar reading on German business confidence from IFO. Feb’s 111.3 headline was a high since July 2011. The median forecast is 110.9, with the usual split between less optimism over the future (107.7) than current conditions (114.5). The UK releases Feb CPI and PPI. Headline CPI was 1.9% y/y in Jan, a low since Nov 2009, reinforcing the case for the BoE to take its time reducing stimulus."
"The US data calendar is crowded, with USD usually most sensitive to Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales. Confidence is seen up slightly in March, to 78.5. For context, the cycle high was 82.1 in June 2013, the Feb 2009 low 25.3 while readings were above 100 throughout 2006 and for most of 2007. New home sales are always prone to volatility but managed a somewhat surprising >5 year high in January, when bad weather should have been hurting sales. Consensus is for a fall of about 5% m/m. The Richmond Fed index is seen recovering to +4 in Mar from -6 while Jan house prices from S&P/Case-Shiller should show ongoing steady recovery."
Key Quotes
"RBA Deputy Governor Lowe speaks on “Opportunities and Challenges for Market-based Financing” from 3:45pm Syd/12:45pm Sing/HK, which doesn’t sound as though it will have any impact on AUD. Asian data releases today are relevant only to local markets (trade data in Philippines and HK)."
"Europe’s calendar highlight is the Mar reading on German business confidence from IFO. Feb’s 111.3 headline was a high since July 2011. The median forecast is 110.9, with the usual split between less optimism over the future (107.7) than current conditions (114.5). The UK releases Feb CPI and PPI. Headline CPI was 1.9% y/y in Jan, a low since Nov 2009, reinforcing the case for the BoE to take its time reducing stimulus."
"The US data calendar is crowded, with USD usually most sensitive to Conference Board consumer confidence and new home sales. Confidence is seen up slightly in March, to 78.5. For context, the cycle high was 82.1 in June 2013, the Feb 2009 low 25.3 while readings were above 100 throughout 2006 and for most of 2007. New home sales are always prone to volatility but managed a somewhat surprising >5 year high in January, when bad weather should have been hurting sales. Consensus is for a fall of about 5% m/m. The Richmond Fed index is seen recovering to +4 in Mar from -6 while Jan house prices from S&P/Case-Shiller should show ongoing steady recovery."