EUR/AUD falling away from 1.57 as recent decline continues into Monday

  • EUR/AUD setting up to continue Friday's decline with Australia dark for Labour Day.
  • Market sentiment following US NFP beat, tariff exemptions boosting AUD.

The EUR/AUD is sliding lower in quiet Monday markets, testing into the 1.5650 area.

The Euro is steeply off of its two-year high against the Aussie following Friday's steady decline capped off by a positive 313k beat to the forecast 200k US Non-Farm Payrolls that sent risk appetite higher to end the week.

Aussie markets are closed for Labour Day, but the pair is continuing to drop into the lower bounds of the consolidation range that trapped the EUR/AUD for most of February. A thin week is shaping up with little data on the docket until Aussie Home Loans drop at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday. 

The Aussie caught some relief over the weekend as the Australian Prime Minister Michael Turnbull confirmed that Australia would be receiving an exemption from Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum bound for the US. The tariffs are due to come into effect in two weeks, and the exemption for Australian metals couldn't e better timed, as the Australian economy is heavily metals-trade dependent, and the last thing the floundering Aussie market needs is another reason to shortchange the AUD.

It's going to be a thin week for the Euro data-wise, with the most notable entries in the macro calendar being Euro-area Industrial Production on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT, and final inflation numbers for the European Union at 10:00 GMT on Friday.

EUR/AUD Technicals

The pair is back into February's consolidation zone, and trading into support from the 34 EMA on Daily candles. Despite the recent decline from 1.5978 the EUR/AUD is still well into bullish territory, and long-term technical traders will note that the pair has been gaining steadily since reaching a low of 1.3624 in February of 2017. H4 charts highlight the pair's decline last week, and a correction may be due if the price doesn't carry through support. Current resistance levels are priced in from the high end of February's consolidation range at 1.5760 and last week's high of 1.5978, with support from February's bottom 1.5630, and January's high of 1.5495.

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