RBA cash rate to remain at 1.50% - TDS

The RBA's March Board meeting tomorrow is widely expected to be a non-event with the cash rate to remain at 1.50% and for the Board to stick to its monthly script, according to analysts at TDS.

Key Quotes

“Of more interest will be Q4 GDP data out on Wed.”

“The OIS strip is extremely flat, the market increasingly of the view the RBA is highly unlikely to lift the cash rate before the Nov meeting. The risk/reward might not look all that great on Aug OIS for example, to make 3.5bps to lose 21.5bps, but we agree the odds of the RBA hiking before Nov is low.”

“Last month we initiated an AU 9m x 1y5y flattener vs US 9m x 1y5y steepener to position for a possible RBA Nov'18 hike and for more term premium to be priced into US forwards. This spread has positive carry of 2.5bps over 3 months now.”