ECB to keep its press release unchanged - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for the ECB to keep its 12:45pm press release unchanged, despite the speculation that it could start changing the language as soon as this week’s meeting, something that they only give a 10% chance.

Key Quotes

“In the introductory statement, we look for the statement to be little changed from Dec, but with as much as a 1/3 chance that the ECB elevates its concerns about the EUR by bringing back “the recent volatility in the exchange rate” language from Sept.”

“The Q&A is where we’re more certain that Draghi will show more concern about tighter financial conditions (i.e. a higher EUR) and their potential drag on the inflation forecasts. We don’t look for much of a hint around what kind of changes to forward guidance could come later this year.”