Switzerland: GDP growth to reach 1.8% in 2018 - ING

The Swiss National Bank will have to wait until late 2019 before the current activity rebound brings inflation back, according to Julien Manceaux, Senior Economist at ING.

Key Quotes

“The Swiss economy has not exactly stood on its own two feet since 2015: the strong appreciation of the CHF following the end of the monetary floor under the EUR/CHF depressed trade while domestic demand was still strong.”

“2017 was the weakest year since 2012, but we expect GDP growth to reach 1.8% in 2018. Both dynamic exports based on a weaker CHF and higher domestic demand should contribute to the rebound.”

“In 2016, the latter was depressed by the lower activity induced by the former. At mid-2017 both legs ended up weak, which explains why 2017 growth is not expected much above 1%, the weakest pace of expansion in the economy since 2012. This should change in 2018 as most indicators point to a rebound at the turn of the year. With the economy back on its two feet again, growth should reach 1.8% in 2018 and 2% in 2019.”