AUD/USD: Downside risks are growing - Westpac

AUD/USD is little changed over the past week, but downside risks are growing, according to Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“The highs around 0.7650 came in the wake of Oct retail sales, but the grim 0.1%qtr reading on the broader survey of household consumption in Q3 doused any notions of consumer strength.”

“Today’s collapse in the Oct trade surplus added further weight. But next week’s local data should be positive overall, with employment and business confidence consistent with strong growth, overshadowing what has been somewhat soft consumer sentiment.”

“Commodity prices meanwhile are somewhat mixed, so if AUD/USD is to trade with a 0.74 handle for the first time since June, it is likely to be in response to a fresh rise in US yields on a hawkish Fed and tax cuts nearing passage. Resistance looks to lie around 0.7650.”