Australia: Trade slump likely to continue into year-end – TDS

Analysts at TDS note that Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply between Sept and Oct, from +$A1.6b to +$A105m, while Mkt was +$A1.4b and TD was at the bottom of the market at +$A300m.

Key Quotes

“Exports fell –1.8%/m while imports rose by +1.9%/m (imports from China +3%/m) always an unfavourable combination for a trade report.”

“Behind the scenes, tourism and LNG exports continue to creep higher as the ‘quiet achievers’. Tourism and coal bring in the same export dollars.”

“On the nasty headline the AUD slumped again, touching $US0.754 and one cent lower than Tuesday’s retail-sales-led rally. The Dec qtr average so far for the exchange rate has been beneficial for exporters with the AUD and ATWI both 2½% lower than the elevated Sep qtr.”

“Using the tools that shaped our October forecast, we expect a slip into deficit for November, and prospects aren’t much better for December. January, however, looks much brighter for the trade report.”