AUD/USD: anchored around 0.77 the figure, more downside to go?

AUD/USD is steady in a quiet early Asian session after pressures overnight in an extension of the CPI downside from Tuesday's Asian shift. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7699, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7709 and low at 0.7697.

As a reminder, the CPI came in 0.2% below the consensus of 2% and thus well below the RBA's target of between 2-3%. Markets are now convinced that they will not see any change of shift in policy or the board's outlook until Aussie data improves and there is an uptick in inflation - that's bearish for the Aussie dollar.

Forex today: US dollar down 0.3%, risk-off hits higher betas, US yields/politics the driving forces

In respect to the US session, US durable goods orders rose 2.2% in September vs 1.0% expected. The core measure (ex-transport) was up 0.7% vs 0.5% expected. The DXY was, however, lower while the AU-US spread continued to weigh in the greenback's favour vs the Aussie with US yields reaching weekly highs. 

FX Asian Outlook: ECB Name of the Game on Thursday

For the day ahead, Australia: Q3 trade prices will be released. Import prices are expected to fall 1.8% and export prices are expected to fall 4.0% with the AUD stronger over the quarter. Also, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle will be making a speech titled “Uncertainty” in Sydney, 6:45 pm local time.

AUD/USD 1 day: 

Analysts at Westpac noted that, at 0.7700, AUD/USD has now retraced 50% of the May-Sep rally but there is potential for further losses if the stalled USD resumes its rise.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

Further out, the analysts at Westpac explained that if the RBA remains firmly on hold, as they expect, and the US dollar rises on the delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year-end. 

AUD/USD levels

FXStreet's Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the price has run into a congested level where the 200-D SMA is holding up the bears, while Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is still bearish, with technical indicators are maintaining their bearish slopes within a bearish territory. "The 20 SMA heading south almost vertically well above the current level. The pair has a strong static support in the 0.7680 region, with a break below if favouring a steeper decline towards 0.7610."