When are UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to drop to -0.1% m/m in September, while on annualized basis, retail sales are also seen ticking lower to 2.1%. In August, retail sales were seen at 1.0% over the month and 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.1% m/m and 2.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0830 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of upto 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A positive surprise in the retail sales report could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above 1.3220/30 barrier. While a bigger-than expected drop in the retail volumes would knock-off the pair back to 1.3155/50 – key support area.

However, the reaction to the UK data is expected to be limited, as the main market moving event for the pound today remains the Brexit Summit, with the UK PM Theresa May’s speech eagerly awaited for some clarity on the Brexit talks.

Key notes

Market movers today – Danske Bank

UK: Brexit negotiations to take centre stage - TDS

About UK retail sales

The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.