EUR/SEK eyes 9.30 in a year’s view – Danske Bank

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Stefan Mellin expects the Swedish Krona to remain somewhat depressed in the next months.

Key Quotes

“The SEK is trading weaker than the Riksbank forecast, which may indicate the currency market is not positioned for any sudden hawkish shift in monetary policy”.

“We had expected CPIF to run above the Riksbank for the coming year but following the September print last week, it runs at/below the Riksbank. Hence, we raise the EUR/SEK profile somewhat. Perhaps the SEK rate reflects some concern about the risks associated with the housing market”.

“We expect the Riksbank to end QE in December. We also expect the ECB to take another baby step towards exit. On balance, we forecast EUR/SEK at 9.50 in 1M, 9.50 (upped from 9.40) in 3M, 9.40 (9.30) in 6M and 9.30 (9.20) in 12M”.