Japan: Expect an unemployment rate of 2.8% for August - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting Japanese unemployment rate of 2.8% for August, flat month-on-month, and a job openings-to-applicants ratio of 1.53x, up 0.01pp m-o-m.

Key Quotes

“The job openings-to-applicants ratio, which tends to lead the unemployment rate, has been on an upward trajectory since February this year. However, the unemployment rate has remained flat since falling to 2.8% in February, with the exception of May when it was boosted by an increase in people leaving work voluntarily and by people newly looking for work.”

“We expect the unemployment rate to be flat month-on-month in August because we think the economy might be close to full employment and therefore regard a drop in the unemployment rate as unlikely. The new job openings-to-applicants ratio, a leading indicator of the total job openings-to-applicants ratio, rose by 0.02 points m-o-m to 2.27x in July, thereby remaining on an upward trajectory. As labour shortages still look severe, we expect the job openings-to-applicants ratio to have remained on a moderate upward trend in August.”