Has the US 10-year Treasury yield bottomed out?

Treasuries and other traditional risk assets are under pressure this Monday as North Korea's silence over the weekend calmed market nerves.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.105%. At press time, the yield traded at 2.099%, up 3.7 basis points [bps] on the day.

Friday's candle was a spinning bottom. Thus, a positive close today, i.e. a bullish follow-through would indicate the yield has bottomed out.

Also note that the uptick in the yield could be long lasting as the Chinese PPI released on Saturday showed the reflationary forces are once again gathering pace in the world's second largest economy and world's biggest commodity importer.

A pick up in Chinese PPI, also known as factory-gate prices, is usually followed by an uptick in the long-term inflation expectations in the US. Thus, traders are advised to watch out for a rise in the US long-term inflation expectations as represented by the 10-year break even inflation rate [difference between the yield on the 10-yr Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and the yield on the nominal 10-year Treasury note].