US Dollar headed first daily close below 92 in more than 2 years
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six trade-weighted peers, plummeted to its lowest level since January of 2015 at 91.38 in the early NA session. Although the index was able to retrace some of its daily losses, it's still looking to close the day below the 92 mark. At the moment, the DXY was at 91.63, losing 0.63% on the day.
The Governing Council of the ECB decided to keep the policy and the deposit rate unchanged on Thursday and announced that the ECB was going to continue with the €60 billion asset purchases at least until December. During the press conference, Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, said that growth in the euro area was robust and broad-based and added that they were likely to announce a decision on the future of the QE program in October. Although Draghi noted that the increasing volatility in the euro exchange rate was concerning, investors continued to price a possible tightening move before the end of the year.
- ECB's Draghi: Decisions on QE in Oct, volatility in FX rate a source of uncertainty
In addition to the sharp upsurge witnessed in the EUR/USD pair, today's disappointing macro data from the U.S. weighed on the greenback as well. According to the US Department of Labor, weekly jobless claims rose to its highest level since April 2015 at 298K for the week ending September 1. Furthermore, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased by 0.2%, suggesting that the wage inflation is likely to remain subdued in the near-term.
Later in the session, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester delivered some hawkish comments, allowing the buck to take a breather. Speaking at a conference in Pittsburgh, Mester argued that the Federal Reserve should stick to its plan to raise interest rates gradually to keep the economy from overheating and added that she was expecting the inflation to return to 2% target rate over the next year.
- Fed's Mester: Further gradual interest-rate rises will be needed
- Fed's Mester: Monpol needs to be systematic, but should not base policy on a single rule
Technical levels to consider:
The index could encounter the first technical support at 91.40 (daily low) before 91.00 (psychological level) and 90.10 (Dec. 30, 2014, low). On the upside, resistances align at 92 (psychological level), 92.70 (Sept. 5 high) and 93.30 (Aug. 31 high).
Today's data from the U.S.
- US: Weekly initial claims was 298,000, an increase of 62,000 from previous week
- US: Productivity rises 1.5% in 2nd quarter 2017 (annual rate); unit labor costs rise 0.2%
- US: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index climbed 1.7% to 53.4