17 Feb 2014
Flash: Weather conditions cause and effect - BAML
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Gustavo Reis, Global Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained weather conditions and impacts effecting global outlook.
Key Quotes
"As in previous years, global activity data seem to be throwing curve balls. The seasonal distortion generated by the timing of the Great Recession - known as the "echo effect" - and warm US winters biased 1Q data on the high side in 2012 and 2013."
"These distortions compounded the usual uncertainty caused by the Chinese data blackout around the lunar new year (LNY). Now an unseasonably cold winter in the eastern US is adding to LNY effects in blurring the activity picture. Alas, Germany is going through its mildest winter in eight years."
"While the Chinese data blackout will end next month, persisting poor weather conditions in the US mean that it may be 2Q before cleaner activity data start to emerge. In the meantime, we focus on the available data for signs of underlying trends."
"Seasonally adjusting the Chinese export data shows that, although not as buoyant as the reported headline, exports have remained resilient in January. In the US, we see clear weather impacts and look for a bounce in the spring."
Key Quotes
"As in previous years, global activity data seem to be throwing curve balls. The seasonal distortion generated by the timing of the Great Recession - known as the "echo effect" - and warm US winters biased 1Q data on the high side in 2012 and 2013."
"These distortions compounded the usual uncertainty caused by the Chinese data blackout around the lunar new year (LNY). Now an unseasonably cold winter in the eastern US is adding to LNY effects in blurring the activity picture. Alas, Germany is going through its mildest winter in eight years."
"While the Chinese data blackout will end next month, persisting poor weather conditions in the US mean that it may be 2Q before cleaner activity data start to emerge. In the meantime, we focus on the available data for signs of underlying trends."
"Seasonally adjusting the Chinese export data shows that, although not as buoyant as the reported headline, exports have remained resilient in January. In the US, we see clear weather impacts and look for a bounce in the spring."